| 1. |
- Lodén, Jonas, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Towards Energy Efficient Housing – the importance of local energy planning
- 2009
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Ingår i: Proceedings of International Forum on Energy Efficiency in Housing, 23-25 November 2009, Vienna, Austria.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A strategy for local energy planning must be in place in order to transform the local energy system and must comprise all relevant sectors and decision makers, i.e. include the residential sector with its relevant stakeholders. Thus, the housing sector cannot be treated inisolation but should rather be part of an analysis which takes a municipal energy systems perspective. This paper reports from an EU IEE (Intelligent Energy Europe) supported work named PATH-TO-RES which develops a methodology to be used as support tool for local energyplanning. The work uses a number of local case studies (Göteborg (SE), Valencia (ES), Dunkerque (FR), Gdansk (PL) and Arnhem and Lochem (NL)) to develop a step-by-stepassessment which can evaluate and define Pathways to renewable and efficient energy systems.A Pathway is a cost efficient way to bridge over from the present energy system to a sustainable system. In short, the proposed methodology starts with a detailed description of the present system (energy infrastructure as well as decision makers and stakeholders) and, based on this, anumber of steps are defined with the aim to serve as check points to ensure that one or more Pathways can be formulated which describe how the local energy system can be transformed to comply with goals and targets.In order to describe the energy systems of the six case studies in a common way, a schematic model called a RES-diagram (RES=Reference Energy System) has been applied, from which the structure (i.e. components, flows and connections) and energy balance of the systems can bedetermined. In the six municipalities studied considerable variation of population, land area and scale and characteristics of the existing energy systems exist. Differences and similarities between the six systems are highlighted and the paper discusses pre-requisites and conditions for municipal energy planning, based on energy systems of the case study regions.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Energy efficiency policies for space heating in EU countries: A panel data analysis for the period 1990–2010
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 150, s. 211-223
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an empirical analysis of the more than 250 space heating-focused energy efficiency policies that have been in force at the EU and national levels in the period 1990–2010. This analysis looks at the EU-14 residential sector (Pre-2004 EU-15, excluding Luxembourg) using a panel data regression analysis on unit consumption of energy for space heating (kWh/m2/year). The policies are represented as a regression variable using a semi-quantitative impact estimation obtained from the MURE Policy Database. The impacts of the policies as a whole, and subdivided into financial, regulatory, and informative policies, are examined. The correlation between the actual reductions in demand and the estimated impact of regulatory policies is found to be stronger than the corresponding correlations with the respective impacts of financial policies and informative polices. Together with the well-known market barriers to energy efficiency that exist in the residential sector, these findings suggest that regulatory policy measures be given a high priority in the design of an effective pathway towards the EU-wide goals for space heating energy.
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| 4. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
-
Energy use in European buildings - monitoring the pathway towards a sustainable built environment
- 2007
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Ingår i: Proceedings of 2007 AGS Annual Meeting - Pathways to our common future , Barcelona, Spain. - 9789197653428 ; , s. 111-112
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- To contribute towards a reduction in demand side energy use in Europe over thecoming decades, a key system that must be put in place, is a method of monitoringenergy usage trends in buildings. A basic premise for such monitoring is, that,across the continent, mandatory building thermal effi ciency standards have notlead to reductions in energy use in line with regulations. Germany, for example,has had building thermal regulations in place since the early 1970’s. Theoreticallythere should have been a 60% reduction in residential sector energy use there overthis time. The reduction has, however, been only 38%1 . A reoccurring problemis that, although applicants for building permits submit plans which include thethermal characteristics of the buildings they plan, compliance is rarely monitoredafterwards by authorities. This has implications for the energy saving initiativesthat have emanated from the EU in the last few years including the EnvironmentalPerformance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). In fact, and this certainly includesbuildings, the IPCC SRES2 states that there is an inadequate ability to capture thepotential for effi ciency improvement and the impacts of effi ciency programs.
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| 5. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
-
Future demand for space heating in buildings: a top-down analysis
- 2011
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Ingår i: EUROPEAN ENERGY PATHWAYS. Pathways to Sustainable European Energy Systems, pp. 363-367. - 9789197858519 ; , s. 363-367
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- If the trends in energy demand for residential sector space heating seen inSweden from 1970 to 2005 continue, total demand is predicted to fall from52 TWh to 47 TWh by 2050. This fall will occur despite projected increasesin average dwelling size and population size. This is because the unit consumption(kWh/m2) of energy use for space heating continues to fall and itstrajectory will offset increases in demand attributable to increases in averagedwelling size and population size. These figures correspond to a reduction inunit consumption for energy for space heating from 125 kWh/m2 to between60 kWh/m2 and 74 kWh/m2. This fall can be amplified through higherenergy prices and increased energy efficiency, to reduce the total to 37 TWh(60 kWh/m2). However, the price elasticity of demand for energy for heatingin dwellings has been found to be very low (-0.16), which means that improvementsin energy efficiency brought about by direct regulatory intervention andincremental technical breakthroughs are of greater importance.
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| 6. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling Energy demand to 2050 in the EU Building Stock – a bottom-up analysis
- 2012
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Ingår i: Proceedings of World Sustainable Energy Days conference, 29th - March 2nd 2012 , Wels, Austria.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lowering absolute energy demand in buildings is a key policy goal of the EU. This is to be achieved primarily through improvements in end use efficiency. This paper presents results of a modelling work which examines three different scenarios for efficiency of energy end uses for the EU 27 building stock to 2050. The model is a coarse bottom-up engineering variant. The model and scenarios applied are described and the results obtained are related to EU goals and aspirations for 2020 and 2050. Model outputs estimate that if energy efficiency was frozen at today’s level, expansion of the building stock and other increases in standards would increase final energy demand in the EU by almost 70% by 2050 whereas continuing efforts at efficiency along current rates could stabilise energy demand. A reduction consistent with the EU’s 20% efficiency improvement target for the year 2020 is also shown to be possible, but needs forceful policy for success. Results from the work also show that the EU aspiration for a reduction in CO2 emissions of 90 % from buildings by 2050 can be met via the penetration of biomass, district heating and heat pumps at the building level provided there is sufficient decarbonisation of the supply system as well.
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| 7. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
-
Quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap in the Swedish Residential Sector
- 2015
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Ingår i: Energy Efficiency. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1570-646X .- 1570-6478. ; 8:5, s. 975-993
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a method for quantifying the energy efficiency gap ex-ante. To do this we define the energy efficiency gap as being the difference between the ex-ante market and techno-economic energy savings potentials. The estimation of market potential is based on top-down (econometric) modelling of energy demand using data from the period 1970–2005. The techno-economical estimates are made using a bottom-up building stock model (ECCABS), to assess the effects and cost-efficiency of various energy efficiency measures. Common to these two modelling approaches are two scenarios of energy prices, which differ only with respect to the carbon tax component. We implement the method for the case of useful energy demand for space and water heating in the Swedish residential sector up to 2030.In comparison to the level of energy use in 2005 (74 TWh), the top-down model predicts for 2030 reductions in demand for the two price scenarios of 17 TWh and 21 TWh, respectively. The bottom-up model predicts corresponding reductions in demand of 25 TWh and 31 TWh, respectively. Thus, there is an energy efficiency gap between the two models of at least 8 TWh in 2030. An implicit discount rate of 10% would render the results from the bottom-up modelling identical to those from the top-down modelling. However the presence of the energy efficiency gap indicates that there is a need for enhanced policies in order to make future reductions in energy demand reach the levels predicted by the bottom-up modelling.
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| 8. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
-
Quantifying the Energy Efficiency Gap for Space and Water heating in the Residential Sector in Sweden
- 2011
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Ingår i: Proceedings of Energy efficiency first: The foundation of a low-carbon society, European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ECEEE) 2011 Summer Study 6–11 June 2011 Belambra Presqu'île de Giens, France. - 9789163344558
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two different methodologies, one top-down and one bottom-up, are presented for estimating potential future energy demand for space and water heating in the existing building stock of the residential sector to 2030. Two future price scenarios are used as inputs. The work is tested using data for the existing Swedish residential building stock. Compared to 2005 levels of energy use (74 TWh) the bottom-up model shows reductions to 52 TWh and 50 TWh for the two price scenarios, respectively. Results from the top-down model are 11 % (8 TWh) and 7 % (5 TWh) higher than those of the bottom-up model for the two price scenarios. This suggests that the price mechanism alone will not be sufficient to achieve the full techno-economic potential for energy efficiency.
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| 9. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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The effect of improved efficiency on energy savings in EU-27 buildings
- 2013
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 57, s. 134-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Utilising energy efficiency to lower energy demand in buildings is a key policy goal of the European Commission. This paper presents the results of bottom-up modelling to elucidate the impact of energy efficiency on the EU building stock up to 2050 under three different scenarios. The modelling is performed for eight individual EU countries and a ninth hypothetical entity that represents the remaining nineteen EU countries. The scenarios highlight the roles of different levels of efficiency improvements in the context of increasing floor area and the demand for energy services. From the results it can be concluded that the EC 2020 goals for primary energy savings can be met by focussing on a combination of minimum efficiency construction standards, improved conversion efficiency standards for final energy to useful energy, and a ≥2% annual improvement in end-use efficiency applied at the useful energy level. A comparison of the results obtained in the present study for Spain with the estimates of savings documented in the Spanish Energy Efficiency Action Plan indicate that the plan could lead to the closing of the energy efficiency gap for buildings in that country by 2020.
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| 10. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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The influence of price and non-price effects on demand for heating in the EU residential sector
- 2015
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 81, s. 146-158
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper models energy demand for space and water heating from 1970 to 2005 in the residential sector of four EU countries (France, Italy, Sweden, and UK) using index decomposition, ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) econometric models and cointegration analysis. The partial and temporal influences on energy demand in each country of the number of households, floor area per household (m2) and unit consumption for space and water heating (kWh/m2/year) are disaggregated. The long-run price elasticity of demand at the unit consumption level is found to be low (around −0.25 over the four countries) while the long-run income elasticity of floor area per household is found to be around 0.25 for Italy, Sweden and the UK but insignificant for France. In an exercise using the model to estimate demand to 2050 under annual increases in energy prices of between 0% and 3% it is found that non-price effects such as building codes and autonomous technical progress (represented in the model as a time trend) are equally or more important than the price effect in reducing demand. Thus achieving significant reductions in EU residential sector energy demand by 2050 would require additional non-price policies and measures for success.
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